Hit ‘n Miss 2011/12 – were you right?

I think this is one of the few blogs where we go back and see if our predictions were accurate, or not. And so, its time to see how brandgym blog readers did in predicting Hits and Misses for 2011/12.

Your predictions were as follows (% scores = thinking it will be a hit):

Screen Shot 2012-07-06 at 09.51.39

Screen shot 2011-07-06 at 18.35.00 1. Google's Android will continue to grow its share of smartphones, helped by the power of the Android brand property, multiple-handset brand support and the woes of RIM/Blackberry and Nokia. =>Android strengthened its position as leader in mobile operating systems, with a 59% share in Q1 2012

2. Amazon Kindle will go from strength to strength, with sales of the handheld device up 10%+ and sales of Kindle ebooks also up strongly, helped by its portability, price-point and ability to be read in sunlight => Kindle sales were up 177% in Q3 of 2011/12… and eBook sales continue to grow quickly too

Screen Shot 2012-07-06 at 09.28.273.Majestic Wine will keep growing at 5-10% despite the recession, helped by its superior service, focus on premium wine and growing store footprint => Majestic Wine have indeed beaten the blue of the recession, and grew by 9% in 2011/12

4.The iPad will maintain its dominant leader-brand position in the growing tablet market (c.65%+ share), helped by wave after wave of upgrades to its superb design, and an ever-growing number of iPad apps.=> the new iPad helped Apple maintain its dominant position, with 60% of a much bigger market

5. Nokia's decline in sales and share price will get worse. We posted about Nokia's problems and question how much the link up with Microsoft might help them. Can the new CEO start to sort them out and at least stabilise the business? brandgym reader said a big "NO" => brandgym readers were 100% right, as Nokia's problems get even worse…net sales in Q1 2012 were down 29%, and the company lost $1.7billion.

6. Tesco's new "venture brands" (like Chocabloc ice cream) will remain a relatively small side-line, with less then 10 non-Tesco Tesco brands in the UK, and in each market the brand getting less than 15% market share in Tesco. => these do seem to have stayed a side-line, with only 8 of them launched according to this source.

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7. Tango Turbo orange spray in a plastic bottle will prove to be bit of a gimmick, with less than £5mill in sales (vs. Tango orange drink at c.£25 mill) => Whilst I can't find hard data on sales, I can't find the product to buy either.. so I think our guess of it being small in sales is right… if anyone has any facts on this one, let me know!

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8. The brand abomination which is the Aston Martin Cygnet city car will fail to take off, owing to it being a re-skinning of a Toyota IQ at a ridiculous price of £30,000 => to quote CEO Ulrich Benz, "I'm not satisfied with Cygnet sales". In fact, the Cygnet may be mainly a crafty ploy to get Aston Martin's overal CO2 emissions down in line with EU reglalations.


9. StellScreen shot 2011-07-06 at 18.40.37a Cidre will make a limited impact on the cider market, with less than 10% share, held back by a lack of real added value, and the difficulty of creating awareness => We go this one wrong I have to say. Stella Cidre has taken a creditable 17% share of the off-trade cider market, with sales of £36million. The proposition did in fact add some value in the market by offering a slightly more premium, upscale cider proposition.

Screen shot 2011-07-06 at 18.36.17 10. Metro Bank will expand and grow, opening at least 10 more shops in the UK, helped by its superior and distinctive brand of service => brandgym readers were not sure about my Hit prediction… but Metro did open 8 new branches, and still plan to have 200 by 2020.



JURY IS OUTScreen shot 2011-07-06 at 18.33.31

11. Innocent Orange Juice will remain a niche proposition with less than 10% share, owing to a lack of real added  value vs. the dominant leader brand Tropicana and communication which fails to build on existing innocent "memory structure" => On the one hand, the juice launch costs partly explains why innocent lost £10million last year… but I can't find share data to see if our <10% prediction was right… can anyone in the drinks business help?

So, overall another good year for brandgymblog readers I think. Called the Hits and Misses pretty well with roughly 8 out of 11 right.

We're working on the 2012/13 version now, so please share any Hit or Miss candidates in the comments box.