Hit ‘n Miss Survey 2009: How did you do?
Last year many of you participated in our Hit and Miss Survey. As promised, here is an update one year on to see how we all did. Overall, it seems that brandgymblog readers you have a pretty good marketing intuition about what will work, or not. I'd give us an 80% score.
WE CALLED it RIGHT
1. The iPhone will cement its position as a leading smartphone, with global sales up at least 10% vs. year ago => Latest quarter sales up 185%, according to guardian.co.uk
2. Kellogg's Vitabu fruit snacks will flop, owing to a questionable value proposition vs. a good old appple => Dwarf product was killed
3. The nonsensical re-naming of Pizza Hut to Pasta Hut will be reversed => Back to normal. Questionable PR stunt
4. Heinz Farmers Market Chilled soup= will be a dwarf on its last legs, or de-listed => Dwarf product was killed
5. Proctoid Paul Poleman
will have a positive effect on Unilever as the first ever CEO to be
recruited from outside. Share price will be up min 10%. Organic sales
growth up min. 5%
Share price up 13%. Underlying sales growth for 1st 9 months up 4.1%.
Selling off weaker non-core brands, further simplifying organisation,
more business focus.
6. Gatorade will fail to seriously dent Lucozade's share of the UK sports drink market, despite its global number 1 ranking. Share will be less than 15% share by end of 2009
Share for 2009 est. at %4 versus 57% for Lucozade Sport
7. McDonald's make-over will continue to produce growth, helped along by the recession. Sales will be up +5-10% over the year => Year to Oct. 31 annual global same-store-sales growth rate of 4.2%, but much stronger in Europe
8. Jordans cereals re-launch will be a success, with sales up by 5-10% thanks to the fab new packaging, upgraded products and a new comms. campaign => Jordans Country Crisp has gone from a -2% sales decline MAT last year to +23% MAT growth this year.
9. Terminal 5 at London's Heathrow Airport will be hailed as a great success, and a real asset for BA, despite its catastrophic launch=> Now seems to be working well according to Design-Build Network. Travellers choosing self-check-in achieve the ten-minute target for completing check-in, they reach their gates within minutes of passing through security and direct access from the aircraft to the terminal also helps with speedy
baggage delivery times
THE JURY IS OUT
1. Howard Shultz's return as CEO of Starbucks will pay off in 2009, with revenues back in growth (5%+) and share price up 15-20%.
Share price doubled, reflecting belief in the turnaround plan: closing
weaker stores, cost cutting, expansion into international growth
markets BUT net revenues down 6% to $9.8 billion
from $10.4 billion (year to Sep), mainly due to lower U.S.
company-operated retail revenues.
2. Coke's Vitamin Water
will come out on top in the UK against Pepsico's V Water, winning twice
the share, thanks to superior marketing and distribution muscle => too soon to call who has won, and hard to get any data!
CALLED it WRONG?
=> Recent post reported an estimated £8million in sales, which aint bad at all. But don't know about the profit. And we did call right risk for core smoothies business, down £17million in 2008.
2. Stella Artois' launch of new products Artois Bock and 4% will fail to revive it. Sales will be flat, but fragmented over 3 products
=> The 4% product seems to have been a hit, and the brand is back in moderate growth. However, time will tell if this is sustainable growth, as it may be cannibalising the core Stella product
So, net I think brandgymblog readers you deserve a pat on the back for calling most of the Hit 'n Misses right!