Hit ‘n Miss 2010 – were you right?
Time to see how brandgym blog readers did in predicting Hits and Misses for 2010: your predictions were as follows (% scores = thinking it will be a hit):
CALLED IT RIGHT
1. Apple's iPad will hit its target of 2.5million units (HIT) => We ever so slightly under-estimated the success. Q4 sales alone were 7 million. Revenue of $4.6billion was bigger than those of Mac computers.
2. Retailer John Lewis will have another good year, with sales up min. 5% (HIT), thanks to great service from its 69,000 partners => despite UK retailers suffering "their worst December on record" , sales for 24 weeks to Jan 11 up 4.1%
3. Nespresso will continue to growth in at least double digits (HIT), thanks to its unique business model and great brand mix => According to the FT "Nestle hinted at the brand’s breakneck growth. Sales are expected to have exceeded $3.08bn last year"
5. Kellogg's new brand of natural feeling cereal called Nature's Pleasure will not take much share from Dorset, and be on its last legs or de-listed (MISS) => Was indeed killed
6. England's football team will fail to end a 44 year wait to win the World Cup (MISS), going out again in the quarter-final on penalties => Even worse, thrashed by old rivals Germany 🙁
7. The Bing search engine (from Microsoft) will fail to dent Google's dominant Leader Brand status in search (MISS), getting no more than 20% market share in the UK => Jan 2011 shares were 4% for Bing and 91% for Google
8. Few people will buy the savoury cereal bar launched by spread brand Marmite (MISS). It will have less than 5% of the cereal bar market => Even our low estimate of Marmite cereal bars was optimistic. Despite 40% distribution, the share is…. 0.25%
9. aol's re-design will have no impact, and the brand will continue to struggle with sales at best flat (MISS) => Poor old AOL has just announced total Q4 sales down 26% and a loss 1.1 million subsrcibers in 2010, down from 4.9 to 3.8 million
10. Coke Zero will struggle to take share from Pespi Max (10% share), despite more money being thrown at it, and not gain significantly in share (OUTSIDE BET) => share for year to 22 Jan is 3.3%, down from 3.6% a year ago
JURY IS OUT
1.Dove for Men will take a take a decent initial share of the male toiletries market, with a c.10% share by end of year 1 (OUTSIDE BET)
=> brandgymblog readers were divided on this one, and its too early to call. Its doing OK, but nowhere near a 10% share yet: 2.8% in male deo and 3.6% in male shower. Total retail sales are £10million …but with year 1 spend planned at £12million Dove for Men will need to grow substantially in 2011 to start paying back…
2. Tiger Woods will bounce back and he'll pick up 1-2 big new sposors => not got the new deals yet, but he will in 2011 according to some reports. A great time to link up with him at a lower cost than before.
3. Guinness Black lager will take less than 5% of the market in test, and not be rolled out (OUTSIDE BET) => Again, brandgymblog readers were divided on this one and the jury is out. Its not been rolled out, but its still alive in Ireland test market.
So, overall a vintage year for brandgymblog readers I think. Called the Hits, Misses and outside bets pretty damn well 🙂
Look out for the 2011 version coming out soon…